{
  "page": "cto-entry-timing",
  "title": "Should you buy a pump.fun CTO at the alert, wait for confirmation, or bid below it?",
  "updated": "2026-10-27T05:05:00.229611+00:00",
  "source": "https://www.belphor.com/data/cto-entry-timing",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "cutoff": "2026-10-27T05:05:00.229611+00:00",
  "groups": {
    "all": [
      {
        "k": "1: buy at the alert",
        "n": 44,
        "dead": 11.4,
        "hit50": 40.9,
        "hit100": 31.8,
        "fill_pct": 100,
        "med_peak_x": 1.42,
        "avg_peak_pct": 515.1,
        "covered": 44
      }
    ],
    "bid": [
      {
        "k": "5: bid 10% under, 1 hour window",
        "n": 13,
        "dead": 30.8,
        "hit50": 15.4,
        "hit100": 7.7,
        "fill_pct": 29.5,
        "med_peak_x": 1.06,
        "avg_peak_pct": 41.4,
        "covered": 13
      },
      {
        "k": "6: bid 15% under, 1 hour window",
        "n": 9,
        "dead": null,
        "dead_raw": 44.4,
        "hit50": null,
        "hit50_raw": 11.1,
        "hit100": null,
        "hit100_raw": 0,
        "fill_pct": 20.5,
        "med_peak_x": null,
        "med_peak_x_raw": 1.08,
        "avg_peak_pct": null,
        "avg_peak_pct_raw": 15.1,
        "covered": 9
      },
      {
        "k": "7: bid 25% under, 1 hour window",
        "n": 6,
        "dead": null,
        "dead_raw": 33.3,
        "hit50": null,
        "hit50_raw": 16.7,
        "hit100": null,
        "hit100_raw": 0,
        "fill_pct": 13.6,
        "med_peak_x": null,
        "med_peak_x_raw": 1.13,
        "avg_peak_pct": null,
        "avg_peak_pct_raw": 23.6,
        "covered": 6
      },
      {
        "k": "8: bid 15% under, 3 hour window",
        "n": 15,
        "dead": 26.7,
        "hit50": 26.7,
        "hit100": 20,
        "fill_pct": 34.1,
        "med_peak_x": 1.3,
        "avg_peak_pct": 50.4,
        "covered": 15
      },
      {
        "k": "9: bid 25% under, 3 hour window",
        "n": 11,
        "dead": 27.3,
        "hit50": 27.3,
        "hit100": 9.1,
        "fill_pct": 25,
        "med_peak_x": 1.22,
        "avg_peak_pct": 38.8,
        "covered": 11
      }
    ],
    "entry": [
      {
        "k": "1: buy at the alert",
        "n": 44,
        "dead": 11.4,
        "hit50": 40.9,
        "hit100": 31.8,
        "fill_pct": 100,
        "med_peak_x": 1.42,
        "avg_peak_pct": 515.1,
        "covered": 44
      },
      {
        "k": "2: buy 30 minutes after the alert",
        "n": 44,
        "dead": 11.4,
        "hit50": 43.2,
        "hit100": 29.5,
        "fill_pct": 100,
        "med_peak_x": 1.37,
        "avg_peak_pct": 298.1,
        "covered": 44
      },
      {
        "k": "3: buy 60 minutes after the alert",
        "n": 44,
        "dead": 11.4,
        "hit50": 34.1,
        "hit100": 22.7,
        "fill_pct": 100,
        "med_peak_x": 1.22,
        "avg_peak_pct": 157.2,
        "covered": 44
      },
      {
        "k": "4: buy at 60 minutes only if the coin held within 15%",
        "n": 35,
        "dead": 5.7,
        "hit50": 42.9,
        "hit100": 28.6,
        "fill_pct": 79.5,
        "med_peak_x": 1.41,
        "avg_peak_pct": 195.7,
        "covered": 35
      }
    ],
    "firsthour": [
      {
        "k": "1: held within 15% in the first hour",
        "n": 35,
        "dead": 0,
        "hit50": 51.4,
        "hit100": 40,
        "fill_pct": 79.5,
        "med_peak_x": 1.56,
        "avg_peak_pct": 645.8,
        "covered": 35
      },
      {
        "k": "2: dipped more than 15% in the first hour",
        "n": 9,
        "dead": null,
        "dead_raw": 55.6,
        "hit50": null,
        "hit50_raw": 0,
        "hit100": null,
        "hit100_raw": 0,
        "fill_pct": 20.5,
        "med_peak_x": null,
        "med_peak_x_raw": 1.01,
        "avg_peak_pct": null,
        "avg_peak_pct_raw": 6.9,
        "covered": 9
      }
    ],
    "instruction": [
      {
        "k": "1: admin_set_creator (to 11 Sep 2026)",
        "n": 0,
        "dead": null,
        "hit50": null,
        "hit100": null,
        "fill_pct": 0,
        "med_peak_x": null,
        "avg_peak_pct": null,
        "covered": 0
      },
      {
        "k": "2: admin_cto (from 11 Oct 2026)",
        "n": 44,
        "dead": 11.4,
        "hit50": 40.9,
        "hit100": 31.8,
        "fill_pct": 100,
        "med_peak_x": 1.42,
        "avg_peak_pct": 515.1,
        "covered": 44
      }
    ]
  },
  "covered": 44,
  "missing": 0,
  "input_hash": "eb5cf72cf54db080f5f96cc30941f5ec05e5baef40ddd2f94df24504265cf86e",
  "window_days": 45,
  "promoted_since": "2026-10-11T15:02:51+00:00",
  "formula_version": "1.5+every-share-null-under-10",
  "notes": "A share, a median peak (med_peak_x) or an average peak (avg_peak_pct) is null where it is computed over fewer than 10 readings (for dead, the signals with a later reading; for fill_pct and share, the page's whole sample), and so is med_now_x where fewer than 10 have a later reading; the raw value is kept under the _raw key and is not an estimate."
}