{
  "page": "cto-outcomes",
  "title": "How often do pump.fun community takeovers (CTOs) succeed?",
  "updated": "2026-10-27T05:30:26.542552+00:00",
  "source": "https://www.belphor.com/data/cto-outcomes",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "cutoff": "2026-10-27T05:30:26.542552+00:00",
  "groups": {
    "all": [
      {
        "k": "all",
        "n": 321,
        "dead": 18.1,
        "hit30": 65.4,
        "hit50": 50.2,
        "hit200": 19.6,
        "covered": 321,
        "med_now_x": 0.52,
        "med_peak_x": 1.51
      }
    ],
    "mcap": [
      {
        "k": "1: under $15k",
        "n": 183,
        "dead": 2.2,
        "hit30": 62.3,
        "hit50": 45.9,
        "hit200": 20.8,
        "covered": 183,
        "med_now_x": 0.64,
        "med_peak_x": 1.45
      },
      {
        "k": "2: $15k to $50k",
        "n": 96,
        "dead": 40.6,
        "hit30": 68.8,
        "hit50": 56.3,
        "hit200": 18.8,
        "covered": 96,
        "med_now_x": 0.26,
        "med_peak_x": 1.63
      },
      {
        "k": "3: $50k to $150k",
        "n": 28,
        "dead": 32.1,
        "hit30": 85.7,
        "hit50": 64.3,
        "hit200": 14.3,
        "covered": 28,
        "med_now_x": 0.75,
        "med_peak_x": 1.84
      },
      {
        "k": "4: over $150k",
        "n": 14,
        "dead": 42.9,
        "hit30": 42.9,
        "hit50": 35.7,
        "hit200": 21.4,
        "covered": 14,
        "med_now_x": 0.39,
        "med_peak_x": 1.23
      }
    ],
    "month": [
      {
        "k": "2026-07",
        "n": 27,
        "dead": 18.5,
        "hit30": 63,
        "hit50": 55.6,
        "hit200": 22.2,
        "covered": 27,
        "med_now_x": 0.51,
        "med_peak_x": 1.86
      },
      {
        "k": "2026-08",
        "n": 235,
        "dead": 18.3,
        "hit30": 66.4,
        "hit50": 51.1,
        "hit200": 18.7,
        "covered": 235,
        "med_now_x": 0.49,
        "med_peak_x": 1.52
      },
      {
        "k": "2026-09",
        "n": 14,
        "dead": 35.7,
        "hit30": 64.3,
        "hit50": 57.1,
        "hit200": 21.4,
        "covered": 14,
        "med_now_x": 0.49,
        "med_peak_x": 1.54
      },
      {
        "k": "2026-10",
        "n": 45,
        "dead": 11.1,
        "hit30": 62.2,
        "hit50": 40,
        "hit200": 22.2,
        "covered": 45,
        "med_now_x": 0.72,
        "med_peak_x": 1.43
      }
    ],
    "score": [
      {
        "k": "1: under 40",
        "n": 44,
        "dead": 4.5,
        "hit30": 61.4,
        "hit50": 50,
        "hit200": 22.7,
        "covered": 44,
        "med_now_x": 0.75,
        "med_peak_x": 1.52
      },
      {
        "k": "2: 40 to 59",
        "n": 215,
        "dead": 20.5,
        "hit30": 67,
        "hit50": 52.6,
        "hit200": 20,
        "covered": 215,
        "med_now_x": 0.48,
        "med_peak_x": 1.54
      },
      {
        "k": "3: 60 to 79",
        "n": 62,
        "dead": 19.4,
        "hit30": 62.9,
        "hit50": 41.9,
        "hit200": 16.1,
        "covered": 62,
        "med_now_x": 0.48,
        "med_peak_x": 1.39
      }
    ],
    "instruction": [
      {
        "k": "1: admin_set_creator (to 11 Sep 2026)",
        "n": 276,
        "dead": 19.2,
        "hit30": 65.9,
        "hit50": 51.8,
        "hit200": 19.2,
        "covered": 276,
        "med_now_x": 0.49,
        "med_peak_x": 1.54
      },
      {
        "k": "2: admin_cto (from 11 Oct 2026)",
        "n": 45,
        "dead": 11.1,
        "hit30": 62.2,
        "hit50": 40,
        "hit200": 22.2,
        "covered": 45,
        "med_now_x": 0.72,
        "med_peak_x": 1.43
      }
    ]
  },
  "covered": 321,
  "missing": 0,
  "input_hash": "9c4bf2b4cda1e3567165042be32ac56559a458a3121e7eaaaf4adb1e8405ec97",
  "window_days": 90,
  "promoted_since": "2026-10-11T15:02:51+00:00",
  "formula_version": "1.6+every-share-null-under-10",
  "suspect_excluded": 0,
  "notes": "A share, a median peak (med_peak_x) or an average peak (avg_peak_pct) is null where it is computed over fewer than 10 readings (for dead, the signals with a later reading; for fill_pct and share, the page's whole sample), and so is med_now_x where fewer than 10 have a later reading; the raw value is kept under the _raw key and is not an estimate."
}