{
  "page": "ignition-survival",
  "title": "How often do Solana memecoin momentum \"ignitions\" survive?",
  "updated": "2026-10-27T05:30:28.340898+00:00",
  "source": "https://www.belphor.com/data/ignition-survival",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "cutoff": "2026-10-27T05:30:28.340898+00:00",
  "groups": {
    "age": [
      {
        "k": "1: under 1 hour",
        "n": 2027,
        "dead": 97.7,
        "hit50": 9.8,
        "hit200": 3.6,
        "covered": 2027,
        "med_now_x": 0,
        "above_entry": 2.1
      },
      {
        "k": "2: 1 to 24 hours",
        "n": 386,
        "dead": 27.2,
        "hit50": 32.9,
        "hit200": 8,
        "covered": 386,
        "med_now_x": 0.43,
        "above_entry": 19.2
      },
      {
        "k": "3: over 24 hours",
        "n": 1926,
        "dead": 3.5,
        "hit50": 16.7,
        "hit200": 3.5,
        "covered": 1926,
        "med_now_x": 0.91,
        "above_entry": 34.2
      }
    ],
    "all": [
      {
        "k": "all",
        "n": 4339,
        "dead": 49.6,
        "hit50": 14.9,
        "hit200": 3.9,
        "covered": 4339,
        "med_now_x": 0.23,
        "above_entry": 17.9
      }
    ],
    "v11": [
      {
        "k": "0: under 65 (not a signal since v11)",
        "n": 1849,
        "dead": 93.9,
        "hit50": 9.2,
        "hit200": 3.3,
        "covered": 1849,
        "med_now_x": 0,
        "above_entry": 3.2
      },
      {
        "k": "1: 65 to 69",
        "n": 1256,
        "dead": 17,
        "hit50": 19.5,
        "hit200": 4.2,
        "covered": 1256,
        "med_now_x": 0.83,
        "above_entry": 29.1
      },
      {
        "k": "2: 70 to 79",
        "n": 1112,
        "dead": 15.8,
        "hit50": 18.3,
        "hit200": 4.4,
        "covered": 1112,
        "med_now_x": 0.84,
        "above_entry": 28.6
      },
      {
        "k": "3: 80 and up",
        "n": 122,
        "dead": 22.1,
        "hit50": 22.1,
        "hit200": 6.6,
        "covered": 122,
        "med_now_x": 0.69,
        "above_entry": 27
      }
    ],
    "accel": [
      {
        "k": "1: under 2x",
        "n": 142,
        "dead": 29.6,
        "hit50": 29.6,
        "hit200": 7,
        "covered": 142,
        "med_now_x": 0.55,
        "above_entry": 21.8
      },
      {
        "k": "2: 2x to 5x",
        "n": 2031,
        "dead": 17.5,
        "hit50": 18.7,
        "hit200": 4.3,
        "covered": 2031,
        "med_now_x": 0.82,
        "above_entry": 27.7
      },
      {
        "k": "3: 5x to 15x",
        "n": 2166,
        "dead": 81,
        "hit50": 10.3,
        "hit200": 3.4,
        "covered": 2166,
        "med_now_x": 0,
        "above_entry": 8.4
      }
    ],
    "current": [
      {
        "k": "65 and up under v11",
        "n": 2490,
        "dead": 16.7,
        "hit50": 19.1,
        "hit200": 4.4,
        "covered": 2490,
        "med_now_x": 0.83,
        "above_entry": 28.8
      }
    ]
  },
  "covered": 4339,
  "last_at": "2026-10-27T05:02:01.402395+00:00",
  "missing": 19,
  "excluded": 297,
  "first_at": "2026-08-28T05:32:13.294936+00:00",
  "recorded": 4655,
  "input_hash": "a21f575471ee62e85d706d4fb2b6478a07815091b99e1e48b27a44b454b77741",
  "window_days": 60,
  "formula_version": "1.5+every-share-null-under-10",
  "suspect_excluded": 187,
  "notes": "A share, a median peak (med_peak_x) or an average peak (avg_peak_pct) is null where it is computed over fewer than 10 readings (for dead, the signals with a later reading; for fill_pct and share, the page's whole sample), and so is med_now_x where fewer than 10 have a later reading; the raw value is kept under the _raw key and is not an estimate."
}