{
  "page": "market-regime",
  "title": "Was the last week a bull, crab or bear week for pump.fun migrations?",
  "updated": "2026-10-16T05:30:20.18925+00:00",
  "source": "https://www.belphor.com/data/market-regime",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "date": "2026-10-15",
  "days": [
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      "hit50": 9.9,
      "score": -0.58,
      "state": "bear",
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      "z_ignition_not_dead": 0.7
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      "hit50": 12.8,
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      "above_entry": 3.3,
      "z_above_entry": -1.2,
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      "z_ignition_not_dead": 0.54
    },
    {
      "d": "2026-10-11",
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      "score": -0.45,
      "state": "neutral",
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      "above_entry": 3.1,
      "z_above_entry": -1.25,
      "ignition_not_dead": 86.6,
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      "z_ignition_not_dead": 0.13
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      "d": "2026-10-13",
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      "z_ignition_not_dead": -0.39
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      "d": "2026-10-15",
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      "d": "2026-10-08",
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      "d": "2026-10-10",
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      "d": "2026-10-11",
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      "d": "2026-10-12",
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    },
    {
      "d": "2026-10-13",
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    },
    {
      "d": "2026-10-14",
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      "m_recorded": 232
    },
    {
      "d": "2026-10-15",
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      "i_dead": 4,
      "m_dead": 150,
      "m_above": 15,
      "m_hit50": 60,
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  ],
  "score": 0.15,
  "since": "since 1 September",
  "state": "neutral",
  "cutoff": "2026-10-16T05:30:20.18925+00:00",
  "covered": 17064,
  "missing": 31,
  "sentence": "Crab week: 4.4 percent of migrations were above their migration price at their latest reading, against an average of 5.2 percent since 1 September. This describes the last 7 days, not the next.",
  "threshold": 0.5,
  "window_to": "2026-10-15",
  "components": [
    {
      "n": 1908,
      "z": -0.5,
      "key": "above_entry",
      "count": 83,
      "label": "Migrations above the migration price at the last mark",
      "share": 4.4,
      "family": "migration",
      "counts_as": -0.5,
      "baseline_sd": 1.76,
      "baseline_days": 45,
      "baseline_from": "2026-09-01",
      "baseline_mean": 5.23
    },
    {
      "n": 1908,
      "z": 1.57,
      "key": "hit50",
      "count": 467,
      "label": "Migrations that reached +50 percent",
      "share": 24.5,
      "family": "migration",
      "counts_as": 1.57,
      "baseline_sd": 6.29,
      "baseline_days": 45,
      "baseline_from": "2026-09-01",
      "baseline_mean": 14.58
    },
    {
      "n": 1908,
      "z": 0.31,
      "key": "dead",
      "count": 1783,
      "label": "Migrations down 80 percent or more (counted against)",
      "share": 93.4,
      "family": "migration",
      "counts_as": -0.31,
      "baseline_sd": 2.34,
      "baseline_days": 45,
      "baseline_from": "2026-09-01",
      "baseline_mean": 92.72
    },
    {
      "n": 298,
      "z": -0.18,
      "key": "ignition_not_dead",
      "count": 248,
      "label": "Ignitions scoring 65 or more not down 80 percent",
      "share": 83.2,
      "family": "ignition",
      "counts_as": -0.18,
      "baseline_sd": 5.38,
      "baseline_days": 37,
      "baseline_from": "2026-09-09",
      "baseline_mean": 84.2
    }
  ],
  "input_hash": "528ed8498340b8c5c59c055c0a9360d22283d916a4acf4266632d82b5e295d29",
  "window_days": 60,
  "window_from": "2026-10-09",
  "baseline_starts": {
    "ignition": "2026-09-09",
    "migration": "2026-09-01"
  },
  "formula_version": "1.1+every-share-null-under-10",
  "notes": "state, score and sentence describe the seven full UTC days from window_from to window_to and are null (raw value under _raw) when a component share rests on fewer than 10 readings. components: count of n readings, share in percent, baseline_mean and baseline_sd in percent over baseline_days seven-day figures from baseline_from, z the distance in sample standard deviations, counts_as its sign in the score (the down-80 share counts against). days: the last days' seven-day shares, distances, score and state. daily: the counts per UTC day (m_ migrations, i_ ignitions scoring 65 or more; recorded rows, n with a reading, above, hit50, dead) from which every figure is pooled. It describes the last 7 days, not the next."
}