{
  "page": "migration-outcomes",
  "title": "What happens to pump.fun coins after they migrate (graduate)?",
  "updated": "2026-10-27T05:30:28.829217+00:00",
  "source": "https://www.belphor.com/data/migration-outcomes",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "cutoff": "2026-10-27T05:30:28.829217+00:00",
  "groups": {
    "all": [
      {
        "k": "all",
        "n": 13188,
        "dead": 92.7,
        "hit50": 19,
        "hit200": 5.6,
        "covered": 13188,
        "med_now_x": 0,
        "above_entry": 5.2
      }
    ],
    "liq": [
      {
        "k": "1: $15k to $30k",
        "n": 6293,
        "dead": 94,
        "hit50": 14,
        "hit200": 5.1,
        "covered": 6293,
        "med_now_x": 0.04,
        "above_entry": 2.1
      },
      {
        "k": "2: $30k to $60k",
        "n": 3596,
        "dead": 98.1,
        "hit50": 20.7,
        "hit200": 6.5,
        "covered": 3596,
        "med_now_x": 0,
        "above_entry": 1.4
      },
      {
        "k": "3: over $60k",
        "n": 3299,
        "dead": 84.4,
        "hit50": 26.9,
        "hit200": 5.5,
        "covered": 3299,
        "med_now_x": 0,
        "above_entry": 15.1
      }
    ],
    "week": [
      {
        "k": "2026-08-24",
        "n": 539,
        "dead": 87.9,
        "hit50": 14.1,
        "hit200": 4.5,
        "covered": 539,
        "med_now_x": 0.02,
        "above_entry": 8.5
      },
      {
        "k": "2026-08-31",
        "n": 1315,
        "dead": 88.9,
        "hit50": 20.9,
        "hit200": 4.1,
        "covered": 1315,
        "med_now_x": 0,
        "above_entry": 8.5
      },
      {
        "k": "2026-09-07",
        "n": 1398,
        "dead": 91.4,
        "hit50": 25,
        "hit200": 5.5,
        "covered": 1398,
        "med_now_x": 0,
        "above_entry": 6.7
      },
      {
        "k": "2026-09-14",
        "n": 1321,
        "dead": 90.5,
        "hit50": 14.2,
        "hit200": 4.2,
        "covered": 1321,
        "med_now_x": 0.01,
        "above_entry": 6.9
      },
      {
        "k": "2026-09-21",
        "n": 1556,
        "dead": 95.4,
        "hit50": 8.3,
        "hit200": 3,
        "covered": 1556,
        "med_now_x": 0.01,
        "above_entry": 3.7
      },
      {
        "k": "2026-09-28",
        "n": 1872,
        "dead": 95.2,
        "hit50": 6.4,
        "hit200": 3.1,
        "covered": 1872,
        "med_now_x": 0,
        "above_entry": 3.5
      },
      {
        "k": "2026-10-05",
        "n": 2015,
        "dead": 95.4,
        "hit50": 14.4,
        "hit200": 4.8,
        "covered": 2015,
        "med_now_x": 0,
        "above_entry": 3.2
      },
      {
        "k": "2026-10-12",
        "n": 1567,
        "dead": 92.9,
        "hit50": 29.4,
        "hit200": 9,
        "covered": 1567,
        "med_now_x": 0,
        "above_entry": 4.5
      },
      {
        "k": "2026-10-19",
        "n": 1420,
        "dead": 91.3,
        "hit50": 38.8,
        "hit200": 10.8,
        "covered": 1420,
        "med_now_x": 0.01,
        "above_entry": 4.8
      },
      {
        "k": "2026-10-26",
        "n": 185,
        "dead": 90.3,
        "hit50": 37.8,
        "hit200": 15.7,
        "covered": 185,
        "med_now_x": 0.01,
        "above_entry": 6.5
      }
    ]
  },
  "covered": 13188,
  "last_at": "2026-10-27T05:16:01.428544+00:00",
  "missing": 69,
  "excluded": 887,
  "first_at": "2026-08-28T05:34:00.77861+00:00",
  "recorded": 14144,
  "input_hash": "12b16e0b6831bba86b34146afb0609f9ca75da84005e4e1865bb9279c4a64c73",
  "corrections": [
    {
      "day": "2026-08-28",
      "rows": 1,
      "family": "migration",
      "reason": "T26: peak 20x or more with no accepted reading within 10 percent",
      "corrected_on": "2026-10-01"
    },
    {
      "day": "2026-08-31",
      "rows": 4,
      "family": "migration",
      "reason": "T26: peak 20x or more with no accepted reading within 10 percent",
      "corrected_on": "2026-10-01"
    },
    {
      "day": "2026-09-11",
      "rows": 2,
      "family": "migration",
      "reason": "T26: peak 20x or more with no accepted reading within 10 percent",
      "corrected_on": "2026-10-01"
    },
    {
      "day": "2026-09-15",
      "rows": 1,
      "family": "migration",
      "reason": "T26: peak 20x or more with no accepted reading within 10 percent",
      "corrected_on": "2026-10-01"
    },
    {
      "day": "2026-09-18",
      "rows": 1,
      "family": "migration",
      "reason": "T26: peak 20x or more with no accepted reading within 10 percent",
      "corrected_on": "2026-10-01"
    },
    {
      "day": "2026-09-23",
      "rows": 2,
      "family": "migration",
      "reason": "T26: peak 20x or more with no accepted reading within 10 percent",
      "corrected_on": "2026-10-01"
    },
    {
      "day": "2026-10-01",
      "rows": 87,
      "family": "migration",
      "reason": "T34 phantom anchor",
      "corrected_on": "2026-10-08"
    },
    {
      "day": "2026-10-02",
      "rows": 112,
      "family": "migration",
      "reason": "T34 phantom anchor",
      "corrected_on": "2026-10-08"
    },
    {
      "day": "2026-10-03",
      "rows": 163,
      "family": "migration",
      "reason": "T34 phantom anchor",
      "corrected_on": "2026-10-08"
    },
    {
      "day": "2026-10-04",
      "rows": 136,
      "family": "migration",
      "reason": "T34 phantom anchor",
      "corrected_on": "2026-10-08"
    },
    {
      "day": "2026-10-05",
      "rows": 178,
      "family": "migration",
      "reason": "T34 phantom anchor",
      "corrected_on": "2026-10-08"
    },
    {
      "day": "2026-10-06",
      "rows": 180,
      "family": "migration",
      "reason": "T34 phantom anchor",
      "corrected_on": "2026-10-08"
    },
    {
      "day": "2026-10-07",
      "rows": 9,
      "family": "migration",
      "reason": "T34 phantom anchor",
      "corrected_on": "2026-10-08"
    }
  ],
  "window_days": 60,
  "formula_version": "1.5+t34-corrected+every-share-null-under-10",
  "suspect_excluded": 874,
  "notes": "Marks for migrations detected 1 to 7 October 2026 were corrected on 8 October 2026 after a price-source defect froze them near the migration price; the correction ledger is public. A share, a median peak (med_peak_x) or an average peak (avg_peak_pct) is null where it is computed over fewer than 10 readings (for dead, the signals with a later reading; for fill_pct and share, the page's whole sample), and so is med_now_x where fewer than 10 have a later reading; the raw value is kept under the _raw key and is not an estimate.",
  "timing": {
    "updated": "2026-10-27T05:12:00.176488+00:00",
    "cutoff": "2026-10-27T05:12:00.176488+00:00",
    "covered": 4618,
    "last_at": "2026-10-26T04:06:01.86159+00:00",
    "missing": 7168,
    "first_at": "2026-09-07T00:08:12.048107+00:00",
    "recorded": 11786,
    "input_hash": "d907239076bc750c12dd0091ca4293816222f859a518e0ea0f03d55f1d423055",
    "window_days": 60,
    "liq10_read24": 4022,
    "liq10_last_at": "2026-10-26T04:06:01.86159+00:00",
    "paths_alerted": 3866,
    "liq10_excluded": {
      "price_suspect": 602,
      "mcap_over_250m": 5,
      "t34_phantom_anchor": 863
    },
    "liq10_first_at": "2026-09-07T00:12:01.704433+00:00",
    "short_excluded": 266,
    "formula_version": "1.2+null-under-10",
    "liq10_notread24": 6299,
    "liq10_input_hash": "6d2ea6549a7b34ec35347f66a61a59426cb789d8499ab61a1c9c4399edcd790d",
    "notes": "Time columns: migrations with pool price readings (a reading with a liquidity figure) in the 24 hours after the migration, the first inside ten minutes, and then 30 or more readings or fewer when one is already at or below 20% of the migration price (mostly the migrations Belphor alerted on; paths_alerted, when present, counts them). n is the paths, considered the migrations whose 24 hours were over, fell_ct the paths with a reading at or below 20% of the migration price, fell80 their share of n, med_fall_min the median minutes to the first such reading among fell_ct, med_peak_x and med_peak_min the median peak multiple and the median minutes to it. A figure is null under 10 paths (the fall time under 10 falls); the raw value is kept under the _raw key and is not an estimate. liq10 (when present): migrations in the time study's window by the pool's liquidity at the first reading inside 10 minutes of the migration (key 6 has no such reading), market cap over $250M, price-suspect and T34-frozen rows left out and counted in liq10_excluded. read24 has a reading 23 to 25 h after the migration, alive24 that reading at or above 0.2x the migration price and dead24 under it, their shares over read24; notread24 and its share over n; peak_n has any reading in the first 24 h, med_peak_x and hit2x_pct (hit2x_ct of them at 2x or more) over it. A share is null over fewer than 10 rows (raw value under _raw); small_sample is true under 30 read24.",
    "groups": {
      "all": [
        {
          "k": "all",
          "n": 4618,
          "fell80": 91.3,
          "fell_ct": 4217,
          "considered": 11786,
          "med_peak_x": 1.33,
          "med_fall_min": 16,
          "med_peak_min": 10
        }
      ],
      "liq": [
        {
          "k": "1: $15k to $30k",
          "n": 1863,
          "fell80": 92.6,
          "fell_ct": 1725,
          "considered": 5633,
          "med_peak_x": 1.19,
          "med_fall_min": 9,
          "med_peak_min": 6
        },
        {
          "k": "2: $30k to $60k",
          "n": 1448,
          "fell80": 96.5,
          "fell_ct": 1397,
          "considered": 3346,
          "med_peak_x": 1.39,
          "med_fall_min": 16,
          "med_peak_min": 10
        },
        {
          "k": "3: over $60k",
          "n": 1307,
          "fell80": 83.8,
          "fell_ct": 1095,
          "considered": 2807,
          "med_peak_x": 1.39,
          "med_fall_min": 73,
          "med_peak_min": 92
        }
      ],
      "week": [
        {
          "k": "2026-09-07",
          "n": 726,
          "fell80": 90.4,
          "fell_ct": 656,
          "considered": 1503,
          "med_peak_x": 1.47,
          "med_fall_min": 73,
          "med_peak_min": 72
        },
        {
          "k": "2026-09-14",
          "n": 675,
          "fell80": 89.9,
          "fell_ct": 607,
          "considered": 1441,
          "med_peak_x": 1.35,
          "med_fall_min": 21,
          "med_peak_min": 12
        },
        {
          "k": "2026-09-21",
          "n": 747,
          "fell80": 93.8,
          "fell_ct": 701,
          "considered": 1683,
          "med_peak_x": 1.3,
          "med_fall_min": 14,
          "med_peak_min": 8
        },
        {
          "k": "2026-09-28",
          "n": 629,
          "fell80": 94.1,
          "fell_ct": 592,
          "considered": 1974,
          "med_peak_x": 1.19,
          "med_fall_min": 9,
          "med_peak_min": 8
        },
        {
          "k": "2026-10-05",
          "n": 480,
          "fell80": 92.3,
          "fell_ct": 443,
          "considered": 2099,
          "med_peak_x": 1.24,
          "med_fall_min": 12,
          "med_peak_min": 8
        },
        {
          "k": "2026-10-12",
          "n": 640,
          "fell80": 89.4,
          "fell_ct": 572,
          "considered": 1600,
          "med_peak_x": 1.31,
          "med_fall_min": 15,
          "med_peak_min": 9
        },
        {
          "k": "2026-10-19",
          "n": 704,
          "fell80": 89.8,
          "fell_ct": 632,
          "considered": 1451,
          "med_peak_x": 1.32,
          "med_fall_min": 15,
          "med_peak_min": 9
        },
        {
          "k": "2026-10-26",
          "n": 17,
          "fell80": 82.4,
          "fell_ct": 14,
          "considered": 35,
          "med_peak_x": 1.24,
          "med_fall_min": 16,
          "med_peak_min": 8
        }
      ],
      "liq10": [
        {
          "k": "1: Under $10k",
          "n": 690,
          "dead24": 119,
          "peak_n": 690,
          "read24": 137,
          "alive24": 18,
          "hit2x_ct": 12,
          "hit2x_pct": 1.7,
          "notread24": 553,
          "dead24_pct": 86.9,
          "med_peak_x": 0.05,
          "alive24_pct": 13.1,
          "notread24_pct": 80.1,
          "small_sample": false
        },
        {
          "k": "2: $10k to $20k",
          "n": 853,
          "dead24": 713,
          "peak_n": 853,
          "read24": 812,
          "alive24": 99,
          "hit2x_ct": 216,
          "hit2x_pct": 25.3,
          "notread24": 41,
          "dead24_pct": 87.8,
          "med_peak_x": 1.27,
          "alive24_pct": 12.2,
          "notread24_pct": 4.8,
          "small_sample": false
        },
        {
          "k": "3: $20k to $50k",
          "n": 940,
          "dead24": 786,
          "peak_n": 940,
          "read24": 828,
          "alive24": 42,
          "hit2x_ct": 328,
          "hit2x_pct": 34.9,
          "notread24": 112,
          "dead24_pct": 94.9,
          "med_peak_x": 1.53,
          "alive24_pct": 5.1,
          "notread24_pct": 11.9,
          "small_sample": false
        },
        {
          "k": "4: $50k to $100k",
          "n": 1106,
          "dead24": 1046,
          "peak_n": 1106,
          "read24": 1064,
          "alive24": 18,
          "hit2x_ct": 385,
          "hit2x_pct": 34.8,
          "notread24": 42,
          "dead24_pct": 98.3,
          "med_peak_x": 1.59,
          "alive24_pct": 1.7,
          "notread24_pct": 3.8,
          "small_sample": false
        },
        {
          "k": "5: $100k or more",
          "n": 1019,
          "dead24": 715,
          "peak_n": 1019,
          "read24": 916,
          "alive24": 201,
          "hit2x_ct": 246,
          "hit2x_pct": 24.1,
          "notread24": 103,
          "dead24_pct": 78.1,
          "med_peak_x": 1.39,
          "alive24_pct": 21.9,
          "notread24_pct": 10.1,
          "small_sample": false
        },
        {
          "k": "6: No reading in the first 10 minutes",
          "n": 5713,
          "dead24": 249,
          "peak_n": 358,
          "read24": 265,
          "alive24": 16,
          "hit2x_ct": 8,
          "hit2x_pct": 2.2,
          "notread24": 5448,
          "dead24_pct": 94,
          "med_peak_x": 0.04,
          "alive24_pct": 6,
          "notread24_pct": 95.4,
          "small_sample": false
        }
      ]
    }
  }
}