What share of memecoin ignitions under an hour old go to zero?
Updated 3 October 2026 · by AtroX · Belphor Research · the data behind this guide
As of 3 October 2026, 82% of the Solana memecoin ignitions Belphor detected on pools under an hour old were down 80% or more at their latest reading (n 7,230, 8 August to 3 October 2026), and their median latest reading rounded to 0.00x of the detection price. For pools between one and 24 hours old the share was 24% (n 391); for pools older than a day, 2.5% (n 1,889).
- Pool age is the widest split in Belphor's ignition record: 82% down 80% or more under an hour, 24% at one to 24 hours, 2.5% over a day.
- Young pools did not run more often to make up for it: 19% reached +50%, against 30% for pools one to 24 hours old.
- "Down 80% or more" is not literally zero; for a pool under an hour old the median latest reading rounded to 0.00x, which does not separate very small prices from readings assigned zero.
- Belphor's trading engine refuses ignitions on pools under an hour old because of this table.
What an ignition is
An ignition is a Solana pool showing a sudden increase in volume, buys and price. Belphor's scanner reads trending and new pools every minute, and a pool qualifies only with at least $25k of liquidity and 15 or more trades in the last five minutes. Ignitions are not limited to pump.fun coins: any Solana pool that passes those gates counts. The price and the pool's metrics, its age among them, are recorded at detection, and every signal is read again at least six hours later.
By pool age at detection
| Pool age | Signals | Down 80% or more | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | Above entry now | Median now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1 hour | 7,230 | 82% | 19% | 6.9% | 13% | 0.00x |
| 1 to 24 hours | 391 | 24% | 30% | 7.7% | 17% | 0.42x |
| Over 24 hours | 1,889 | 2.5% | 18% | 3.7% | 36% | 0.92x |
Fetched from the public JSON on 3 October 2026. The live table refreshes daily; this article is a dated snapshot of it. How each column is measured: how Belphor measures outcomes.
Pool age is the widest split in the ignition record. 82% of ignitions on pools under an hour old were down 80% or more at their latest reading, against 24% for pools between one and 24 hours old and 2.5% for pools older than a day. The median young ignition was worth 0.00x its detection price at its latest reading, rounded to two decimals, against 0.92x for pools older than a day.
The young pools did not buy that risk with bigger runs. They reached +50% at 19%; pools older than a day reached it at 18%, which the record does not separate, and pools between one and 24 hours old reached it more often, at 30%.
"Down 80% or more" is not quite zero
The measure is a latest price at 20% of the detection price or lower, and a pool whose liquidity drained below $1k counts as zero. So the 82% can include coins still trading at a fraction of their price as well as coins with nothing left to trade against. The rounded median of 0.00x does not distinguish very small positive prices from readings assigned zero for drained pools. The full definition is in how Belphor measures outcomes.
Why young pools collapse more often
The table measures the what; the why is reasoning, not measurement. A pool under an hour old has no history to read: its liquidity can be pulled, its supply can still sit with the launch wallets, and its volume is the launch itself rather than demand that has lasted. Those are the conditions the checks in the anatomy of a rug pull and what liquidity really means are built for. Belphor's own trading engine refuses ignitions on pools under an hour old because of this table.
Volume acceleration tells the same story
| Acceleration | Signals | Down 80% or more | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | Above entry now | Median now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 2x | 128 | 27% | 31% | 4.7% | 19% | 0.56x |
| 2x to 5x | 2,023 | 17% | 19% | 4.3% | 29% | 0.82x |
| 5x to 15x | 7,359 | 78% | 19% | 6.9% | 15% | 0.00x |
Ignitions with 5x to 15x acceleration were down 80% or more far more often (78%, n 7,359) than those with 2x to 5x (17%, n 2,023), and the record does not separate the two on reaching +50% (19% against 19%). The two splits may overlap, and the public table does not cross them, so this page does not either. Ten minutes of checks before a buy, in the right order, are in how to research a memecoin.
How often do Solana memecoin momentum signals survive? The live table behind this guide, recomputed daily, with its JSON and CSV twins, by pool age, by volume acceleration and by score.
Frequently asked
What percentage of new Solana memecoins die?
Among the ignitions Belphor detected on pools under an hour old, 82% (n 7,230) were down 80% or more at their latest reading, as of 3 October 2026. Across all pool ages the share was 64% (n 9,510).
Are older memecoin pools safer?
In this record they collapsed far less often: 2.5% of ignitions on pools older than a day were down 80% or more (n 1,889). They did not run more often: 18% reached +50%, against 19% for pools under an hour old.
Does a bigger volume spike mean a better coin?
No. Ignitions with 5x to 15x volume acceleration were down 80% or more 78% of the time (n 7,359), against 17% for 2x to 5x (n 2,023), and both reached +50% at 19%.
Belphor records pump.fun takeovers on-chain, scores each signal 0 to 100 and publishes measured outcomes with their sample sizes, windows and missing readings. Reflex Bot is coming soon and priced separately. The tables in this guide come from that record.
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