How often do Solana memecoin momentum "ignitions" survive?
Of the 2,490 Solana memecoin momentum signals (ignitions) Belphor recorded between 28 Aug 2026 and 27 Oct 2026 that the current scanner emits (a v11 score of 65 or above) and that have a price reading at least six hours later, 17% were at 20% of their detection price or lower when last checked, 19% reached +50% at some point, and 29% were above their detection price at the last reading. Across the full window the share down 80% or more is 50% (n 4,339), and 15% reached +50%: that count adds 1,849 signals recorded before 2 September 2026 that score under 65 with the current formula, a kind of signal the scanner no longer emits, and 94% of those were down 80% or more. The widest split in that share is by pool age: 98% (n 2,027) for under 1 hour against 3.5% (n 1,926) for over 24 hours. Updated 2026-10-27.
Cite as: Belphor Research (2026). How often do Solana memecoin momentum "ignitions" survive? Belphor Data, https://www.belphor.com/data/ignition-survival. Updated 2026-10-27. Inputs a21f575471ee, formula 1.5, covered 4,339, missing 19. CC BY 4.0.
By pool age at detection
| Pool age | Signals | With a later reading | Down 80% or more | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | Above entry now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 1 hour | 2,027 | 2,027 | 98% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| 1 to 24 hours | 386 | 386 | 27% | 33% | 8.0% | 19% |
| over 24 hours | 1,926 | 1,926 | 3.5% | 17% | 3.5% | 34% |
297 rows excluded: price not verified.
By volume acceleration (5-minute volume vs the hour before)
| Acceleration | Signals | With a later reading | Down 80% or more | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | Above entry now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 2x | 142 | 142 | 30% | 30% | 7.0% | 22% |
| 2x to 5x | 2,031 | 2,031 | 18% | 19% | 4.3% | 28% |
| 5x to 15x | 2,166 | 2,166 | 81% | 10% | 3.4% | 8.4% |
297 rows excluded: price not verified.
By Belphor v11 ignition score
| v11 score | Signals | With a later reading | Down 80% or more | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | Above entry now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 65 (not a signal since v11) | 1,849 | 1,849 | 94% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| 65 to 69 | 1,256 | 1,256 | 17% | 20% | 4.2% | 29% |
| 70 to 79 | 1,112 | 1,112 | 16% | 18% | 4.4% | 29% |
| 80 and up | 122 | 122 | 22% | 22% | 6.6% | 27% |
297 rows excluded: price not verified.
Signals recorded before 2 September 2026 are re-scored with the v11 formula from their stored metrics. The under-65 row shows what the current scanner no longer emits.
How this is measured
An ignition is a Solana pool showing a sudden increase in volume, buys and price, found by scanning trending and new pools every minute; only pools with at least $25k liquidity and 15 or more trades in the last five minutes qualify. Price and metrics are recorded at detection.
The window is the 60 days ending when this page was recomputed, read from both the live table and the archive of older signals, so the first and last signal it holds are the dates printed above. Rates are computed over the signals with a price reading at least 6 hours after detection, which is every signal the tables count.
"Down 80% or more" means the most recent price reading, at least 6 hours after detection, was 20% of the detection price or lower (a pool that drained below $1k of liquidity counts as zero). "Reached +X%" uses the highest price observed after detection. "Above entry now" uses the most recent reading. A share over fewer than 10 readings prints as too few readings.
A signal is left out when its price cannot be verified: a market cap above $250M at detection (an established token, not an ignition) or a peak of 100x or more with no matching price snapshot in Belphor's record. The count is printed under each table.
These are outcomes of detected signals, not of trades. Belphor's own trading engine refuses ignitions on pools under 1 hour old because of exactly this data.
Readings excluded, price unverified: 187. A detection whose recorded price and market cap cannot both be right (together they imply a token supply outside 0.7 to 1.3 billion, and a pump.fun coin is minted with one billion) is kept on the record with its price exactly as it was read, flagged, and left out of every multiple, rate and list on this page, so the denominators above are the verified rows only. From 12 October 2026 the scanner reads both figures from one pair document at detection and flags a disagreement as it writes the row.
Frequently asked
What percentage of new Solana memecoins die?
Among the 4,339 momentum signals Belphor recorded between 28 Aug 2026 and 27 Oct 2026 with a later reading, 50% were at 20% or less of their detection price when last checked. In this record the share was higher for pools under an hour old (98%, n 2,027) than for pools older than a day (3.5%, n 1,926).
Does a bigger volume spike mean a better coin?
No. In this record, pools with 5x to 15x acceleration were more often down 80% or more (81%, n 2,166) than pools with 2x to 5x (18%, n 2,031), and reached +50% less often (10% against 19%). Here extreme acceleration went with a higher share of coins down 80% or more, not with a durable move.
Where does this data come from?
From Belphor's own scanner (GeckoTerminal pool data at detection, DexScreener prices afterwards), recomputed daily from the raw record. The JSON and CSV files on this page contain the same numbers.
Belphor records pump.fun takeovers on-chain, scores each signal 0 to 100 and publishes measured outcomes with their sample sizes, windows and missing readings. Reflex Bot is coming soon and priced separately.
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