How often do Solana memecoin momentum "ignitions" survive?
Of the 2654 Solana memecoin momentum signals (ignitions) Belphor recorded in the last 60 days, 75% were at 20% of their detection price or lower when last checked, 12% reached +50% at some point, and only 10% were above their detection price at the last reading. Pool age is the single strongest predictor: see the tables. Updated 2026-09-11.
Cite as: Belphor Research (2026). How often do Solana memecoin momentum "ignitions" survive? Belphor Data, https://belphor.com/data/ignition-survival. Updated 2026-09-11. CC BY 4.0.
By pool age at detection
| Pool age | Signals | Went to zero | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | Above entry now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 1 hour | 2023 | 98% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% |
| 1 to 24 hours | 75 | 20% | 36% | 11% | 25% |
| over 24 hours | 556 | 1.8% | 21% | 7.6% | 37% |
By volume acceleration (5-minute volume vs the hour before)
| Acceleration | Signals | Went to zero | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | Above entry now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 2x | 39 | 23% | 49% | 10% | 33% |
| 2x to 5x | 575 | 18% | 20% | 7.1% | 30% |
| 5x to 15x | 2040 | 93% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% |
By Belphor v11 ignition score
| v11 score | Signals | Went to zero | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | Above entry now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 65 (not a signal since v11) | 2026 | 94% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% |
| 65 to 69 | 297 | 15% | 22% | 6.7% | 33% |
| 70 to 79 | 287 | 15% | 24% | 9.8% | 32% |
| 80 and up | 44 | 25% | 21% | 9.1% | 30% |
Signals recorded before 2 September 2026 are re-scored with the v11 formula from their stored metrics; the under-65 row shows what the current scanner no longer emits.
How this is measured
An ignition is a Solana pool showing a sudden increase in volume, buys and price, found by scanning trending and new pools every minute; only pools with at least $25k liquidity and 15 or more trades in the last five minutes qualify. Price and metrics are recorded at detection.
"Went to zero" means the most recent price reading, at least 6 hours after detection, was 20% of the detection price or lower (a pool that drained below $1k of liquidity counts as zero). "Reached +X%" uses the highest price observed after detection. "Above entry now" uses the most recent reading.
These are outcomes of detected signals, not of trades. Belphor's own trading engine refuses ignitions on pools under 1 hour old because of exactly this data.
Frequently asked
What percentage of new Solana memecoins die?
Among momentum signals Belphor detected, 75% were at 20% or less of their detection price when last checked. The rate is far higher for pools under an hour old than for pools older than a day; the pool-age table above has the split.
Does a bigger volume spike mean a better coin?
No. In this record, pools with 5x or more volume acceleration died far more often than pools with 2x to 5x. Extreme acceleration is the signature of a pump, not of a durable move.
Where does this data come from?
From Belphor's own scanner (GeckoTerminal pool data at detection, DexScreener prices afterwards), recomputed daily from the raw record. The JSON and CSV files on this page contain the same numbers.
Belphor detects pump.fun takeovers on-chain in real time, scores every signal, trades member strategies on paper or live, and publishes every outcome. No promises, just receipts.
Explore Belphor →