How often does a pump.fun community takeover reach +50%?
Updated 11 October 2026 · by AtroX · Belphor Research · the data behind this guide
As of 3 October 2026, 53% of the 352 pump.fun community takeovers Belphor detected on-chain in the previous 90 days traded at least 50% above the takeover price at some point after detection. 66% reached +30%, 19% reached +200%, and the median takeover peaked at 1.56x its detection price. Reaching +50% is not where a coin ends: the median of the 22 takeovers with a price reading at least six hours later stood at 0.50x.
- About half of detected takeovers reached +50% at some point (53%, n 352, 90 days to 3 October 2026); about one in five reached +200%.
- The peak is not the outcome: of the 22 takeovers with a later reading, 32% were down 80% or more and the median sat at 0.50x the takeover price.
- Takeovers between $15k and $50k market cap reached +50% more often than those under $15k (59%, n 108, against 49%, n 192).
- The record holds no takeover between 12 September and 11 October 2026: pump.fun replaced its takeover instruction on 12 September, and the new one was recorded unpromoted until 11 October, when its new-creator form started to count.
The headline numbers
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Takeovers detected, each at least 24 hours old | 352 |
| Reached +30% at some point | 66% |
| Reached +50% at some point | 53% |
| Reached +200% at some point | 19% |
| Median peak, as a multiple of the takeover price | 1.56x |
| With a price reading at least six hours later | 22 |
| Of those, down 80% or more at that reading | 32% |
| Of those, the median at that reading | 0.50x |
Fetched from the public JSON on 3 October 2026. The live table refreshes daily; this article is a dated snapshot of it. How each column is measured: how Belphor measures outcomes.
What "reached +50%" means, and what it does not
A takeover counts as reaching +50% when the highest price observed after detection was at least 50% above the price at the moment the takeover executed. It says the coin traded there at some point. It does not say a buyer at the alert could have sold there, and it does not say where the coin ended.
The two can be far apart. A coin that touched 1.6x for a few minutes and then fell to 0.1x counts as reaching +50%. That is why the table prints the peak and the later reading side by side: the median peak is 1.56x, and the median of the 22 coins with a later reading is 0.50x. These medians describe different populations and cannot quantify a typical giveback or the return an exit rule could capture; exit rules are the subject of when to sell a memecoin and trailing stops and profit taking.
By market cap at the takeover
| Takeovers | Reached +30% | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | With a later reading | Down 80% or more | Median peak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under $15k | 192 | 63% | 49% | 20% | 5 | too few readings | 1.48x |
| $15k to $50k | 108 | 69% | 59% | 20% | 10 | 60% | 1.68x |
| $50k to $150k | 38 | 82% | 61% | 11% | 5 | too few readings | 1.72x |
| over $150k | 14 | 36% | 36% | 21% | 2 | too few readings | 1.22x |
A "Down 80% or more" cell computed over fewer than ten later readings prints "too few readings" instead of a share.
Takeovers between $15k and $50k reached +50% more often than those under $15k (59%, n 108, against 49%, n 192). The record does not separate the $50k to $150k band from the $15k to $50k band on reaching +50% (61% against 59%). It does on reaching +200%: the $50k to $150k band got there less often (11%, n 38) than either smaller band. The 14 takeovers over $150k are fewer than 30, the size under which this record compares no row with another.
By month
| Takeovers | Reached +30% | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | With a later reading | Down 80% or more | Median peak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | 103 | 64% | 56% | 20% | 1 | too few readings | 1.70x |
| August 2026 | 235 | 66% | 51% | 19% | 7 | too few readings | 1.52x |
| September 2026 | 14 | 64% | 57% | 21% | 14 | 36% | 1.54x |
July's takeovers reached +50% more often than August's (56%, n 103, against 51%, n 235). September holds 14 takeovers, every one of them from before 12 September, too few to compare with either month.
Why the record pauses between 11 September and 11 October
pump.fun replaced the takeover instruction on 12 September 2026. Belphor recorded the new instruction, admin_cto, unpromoted while it was measured against the old record (n 38: 47 percent reached +50 percent against 48 to 54 under the earlier instruction; 21 percent were down 80 percent or more against 18 to 21). From 11 October 2026 its new-creator form is alerted and counted as a takeover, behind liquidity, mint-safety and operator gates. Holder-reward events are recorded as their own type and are not takeovers. So no takeover between 12 September and 11 October appears in these tables, and the live page shows the two instructions apart in its "By instruction" table. In the seven days to 3 October 2026, the weekly record lists 19 unpromoted admin_cto and rare_admin rows. The change, and the second form of the new instruction that is not a takeover at all, are covered in how CTO detection works.
The live page also keeps a detection record: from 20 September 21:51 UTC to 24 September 09:11 UTC the delivery path from the chain to Belphor's recorder was down, and the ten takeover instructions that landed in that gap were recovered from the chain afterwards.
How to use the number
A base rate is what a single alert is worth before anything else is known about it. In this record a takeover alert is a coin with roughly even odds of trading 50% higher at some point and a real chance of ending far lower. That is a shape a process can work with: an entry rule decided in advance, a size small enough to survive the losers, and an exit that sells into the peak rather than waiting for the end. The arithmetic of whether that adds up is expectancy. Timing the entry is measured in when to buy after a pump.fun takeover, and the time to the peak in how long a takeover runs.
How often do pump.fun community takeovers succeed? The live table behind this guide, recomputed daily, with its JSON and CSV twins. Also measured: entry timing and time to peak.
Frequently asked
What percentage of pump.fun CTOs reach +50%?
In Belphor's record as of 3 October 2026, 53% of the 352 community takeovers detected in the previous 90 days traded at least 50% above the takeover price at some point after detection. The live table at belphor.com/data/cto-outcomes refreshes daily.
How many pump.fun CTOs go to zero?
Belphor measures down 80% or more rather than zero. Of the 22 takeovers with a price reading at least six hours after detection, 32% were at 20% of the takeover price or lower at that reading. The other 330 have no such reading, so this describes the covered coins, not all 352.
Does a bigger market cap make a CTO more likely to succeed?
Not in a straight line. Takeovers between $15k and $50k reached +50% more often than those under $15k (59% against 49%), the $50k to $150k band did not separate from the $15k to $50k band, and the 14 takeovers over $150k are too few to compare.
Belphor records pump.fun takeovers on-chain, scores each signal 0 to 100 and publishes measured outcomes with their sample sizes, windows and missing readings. Reflex Bot is coming soon and priced separately. The tables in this guide come from that record.
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