How often do pump.fun community takeovers (CTOs) succeed?
Of the 351 pump.fun community takeovers Belphor detected on-chain in the last 90 days (each at least 24 hours old), 66% traded at least 30% above the takeover price at some point, 53% reached +50%, and 19% reached +200%. 17% of the 172 coins with a later price reading fell to 20% of the takeover price or below. The median takeover peaked at 1.56x and currently trades at 0.52x its detection price. Updated 2026-09-11.
Cite as: Belphor Research (2026). How often do pump.fun community takeovers (CTOs) succeed? Belphor Data, https://belphor.com/data/cto-outcomes. Updated 2026-09-11. CC BY 4.0.
By month of the takeover
| Month | Takeovers | Reached +30% | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | Went to zero | Median peak (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 103 | 64% | 56% | 20% | 0.0% | 1.70x |
| 2026-08 | 235 | 66% | 51% | 19% | 17% | 1.52x |
| 2026-09 | 13 | 62% | 54% | 23% | 31% | 1.54x |
By market cap at the takeover
| Market cap | Takeovers | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | Went to zero | Median peak (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under $15k | 192 | 49% | 20% | 2.2% | 1.48x |
| $15k to $50k | 107 | 59% | 21% | 35% | 1.71x |
| $50k to $150k | 38 | 61% | 11% | 21% | 1.72x |
| over $150k | 14 | 36% | 21% | 46% | 1.22x |
By Belphor score at the takeover
| Score | Takeovers | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | Went to zero | Median peak (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 40 | 47 | 49% | 19% | 0.0% | 1.48x |
| 40 to 59 | 247 | 55% | 20% | 22% | 1.59x |
| 60 to 79 | 57 | 47% | 16% | 12% | 1.46x |
The score is Belphor's 0 to 100 quality estimate at detection time. It is published so it can be judged, not because it is proven.
How this is measured
A CTO is counted when a pump.fun creator-change instruction executes on-chain; Belphor records the price and market cap at that moment. Demo and test rows are excluded, and a takeover has to be at least 24 hours old to appear here.
"Reached +X%" means the highest price observed after detection was at least X% above the detection price. "Went to zero" means the most recent price reading, taken at least 6 hours after detection, was 20% of the detection price or lower; this share is computed over coins that have such a reading (the covered count), so it is a lower bound for the whole set.
Peak and current multiples are medians of price divided by detection price. Prices come from DexScreener pair data. Every number here is recomputed from the raw record once a day; nothing is curated by hand.
Frequently asked
What percentage of pump.fun CTOs are profitable?
In Belphor's record, 53% of detected takeovers traded at least 50% above the takeover price at some point, but the median coin later gave most of that back (median current multiple 0.52x). Whether a trader profits depends on the exit, not only on the signal.
How many CTO coins go to zero?
17% of the takeovers with a later price reading fell to 20% or less of the takeover price. Memecoins are extremely high risk and most eventually go to zero; a takeover changes the odds of a short-term move, not the long-run base rate.
Where does this data come from?
From Belphor's own on-chain detection of pump.fun creator-change instructions and DexScreener prices, recomputed daily from the raw record. The JSON and CSV files on this page contain the same numbers.
Belphor detects pump.fun takeovers on-chain in real time, scores every signal, trades member strategies on paper or live, and publishes every outcome. No promises, just receipts.
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