How often do pump.fun community takeovers (CTOs) succeed?
Of the 321 pump.fun community takeovers Belphor detected on-chain in the last 90 days (each at least 24 hours old), 65% traded at least 30% above the takeover price at some point, 50% reached +50%, and 20% reached +200%. The median takeover peaked at 1.51x its detection price. 18% of the 321 coins with a later price reading fell to 20% of the takeover price or below, and the median of those 321 was at 0.52x its detection price at that reading. Updated 2026-10-27.
Cite as: Belphor Research (2026). How often do pump.fun community takeovers (CTOs) succeed? Belphor Data, https://www.belphor.com/data/cto-outcomes. Updated 2026-10-27. Inputs 9c4bf2b4cda1, formula 1.6, covered 321, missing 0. CC BY 4.0.
By month of the takeover
| Month | Takeovers | Reached +30% | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | With a later reading | Down 80% or more | Median peak (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 27 | 63% | 56% | 22% | 27 | 19% | 1.86x |
| 2026-08 | 235 | 66% | 51% | 19% | 235 | 18% | 1.52x |
| 2026-09 | 14 | 64% | 57% | 21% | 14 | 36% | 1.54x |
| 2026-10 | 45 | 62% | 40% | 22% | 45 | 11% | 1.43x |
By instruction
| Instruction | Takeovers | Reached +30% | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | With a later reading | Down 80% or more | Median peak (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| admin_set_creator (to 11 Sep 2026) | 276 | 66% | 52% | 19% | 276 | 19% | 1.54x |
| admin_cto (from 11 Oct 2026) | 45 | 62% | 40% | 22% | 45 | 11% | 1.43x |
admin_set_creator is the instruction pump.fun removed on 12 September 2026; admin_cto is its replacement, counted here from 11 Oct 2026. A row with no takeover yet prints none; a share over fewer than 10 readings prints too few readings.
By market cap at the takeover
| Market cap | Takeovers | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | With a later reading | Down 80% or more | Median peak (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under $15k | 183 | 46% | 21% | 183 | 2.2% | 1.45x |
| $15k to $50k | 96 | 56% | 19% | 96 | 41% | 1.63x |
| $50k to $150k | 28 | 64% | 14% | 28 | 32% | 1.84x |
| over $150k | 14 | 36% | 21% | 14 | 43% | 1.23x |
By Belphor score at the takeover
| Score | Takeovers | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | With a later reading | Down 80% or more | Median peak (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 40 | 44 | 50% | 23% | 44 | 4.5% | 1.52x |
| 40 to 59 | 215 | 53% | 20% | 215 | 21% | 1.54x |
| 60 to 79 | 62 | 42% | 16% | 62 | 19% | 1.39x |
The score is Belphor's 0 to 100 quality estimate at detection time. It is published so it can be judged, not because it is proven.
Detection record
Periods when part of Belphor's detection was not recording or not alerting, written down so a gap in the tables above is never silent.
Takeover recording, 20 Sep 2026 21:51 UTC to 24 Sep 2026 09:11 UTC. The delivery path from the chain to the recorder was down; pump.fun changed nothing. Rows recovered: 10. The ten takeover instructions that landed on chain during the gap were recovered from the chain afterwards, with the time each landed. They are unpromoted rows and count in no takeover figure.
Takeover alerts, 11 Sep 2026 11:32 UTC to 17 Sep 2026 19:35 UTC. pump.fun replaced its takeover instruction; takeovers under the new one were recorded later from chain and are not alerted or counted as takeovers until their outcomes are measured. The 89 rows written under the new instruction between 12 and 17 September were relabelled from the chain on 17 September.
How this is measured
A CTO is counted when a pump.fun creator-change instruction executes on-chain; Belphor records the price and market cap at that moment. Demo and test rows are excluded, and a takeover has to be at least 24 hours old to appear here.
"Reached +X%" means the highest price observed after detection was at least X% above the detection price. "Down 80% or more" means the most recent price reading, taken at least 6 hours after detection, was 20% of the detection price or lower; this share is computed over coins that have such a reading (the "With a later reading" column), so it is a lower bound for the whole set, and a row with fewer than 10 such readings prints too few readings instead of a share. The same holds for every other share in the tables: one over fewer than 10 takeovers prints too few readings.
Peak and current multiples are medians of price divided by detection price. Prices come from DexScreener pair data. Every number here is recomputed from the raw record once a day; nothing is curated by hand.
The latest reading comes from Belphor's snapshot table for the last 45 days and from its archive for anything older, so a takeover keeps its reading after it ages out of the live table.
pump.fun replaced its takeover instruction on 12 September 2026. This page counts takeovers detected under the earlier instruction, admin_set_creator, the last on 11 September 2026, and, from 11 Oct 2026, takeovers made under the new instruction's new-creator form, admin_cto, which Belphor alerts on and counts as takeovers behind the liquidity, mint safety and rug registry gates. The "By instruction" table shows the two populations apart. Rows recorded under the new instruction before 11 Oct 2026, and its holder-reward form, are not takeovers here.
Readings excluded, price unverified: 0. A detection whose recorded price and market cap cannot both be right (together they imply a token supply outside 0.7 to 1.3 billion, and a pump.fun coin is minted with one billion) is kept on the record with its price exactly as it was read, flagged, and left out of every multiple, rate and list on this page, so the denominators above are the verified rows only. From 12 October 2026 the scanner reads both figures from one pair document at detection and flags a disagreement as it writes the row.
Frequently asked
What percentage of pump.fun CTOs are profitable?
In Belphor's record, 50% of the 321 detected takeovers traded at least 50% above the takeover price at some point (median peak 1.51x). At the latest reading at least six hours after the takeover, the median of the 321 with such a reading was at 0.52x the takeover price, below where it started. Whether a trader profits depends on the exit, not only on the signal.
How many CTO coins go to zero?
18% of the 321 takeovers with a price reading at least six hours later were at 20% or less of the takeover price at that reading. The other 0 have no such reading in the record, so this describes the covered coins, not all 321. Memecoins are extremely high risk.
Does this page count pump.fun's new takeover instruction?
pump.fun replaced its takeover instruction on 12 September 2026. This page counts takeovers detected under the earlier instruction, admin_set_creator, the last on 11 September 2026, and, from 11 Oct 2026, takeovers made under the new instruction's new-creator form, admin_cto, which Belphor alerts on and counts as takeovers behind the liquidity, mint safety and rug registry gates. The "By instruction" table shows the two populations apart. Rows recorded under the new instruction before 11 Oct 2026, and its holder-reward form, are not takeovers here.
Where does this data come from?
From Belphor's own on-chain detection of pump.fun creator-change instructions and DexScreener prices, recomputed daily from the raw record. The JSON and CSV files on this page contain the same numbers.
Belphor records pump.fun takeovers on-chain, scores each signal 0 to 100 and publishes measured outcomes with their sample sizes, windows and missing readings. Reflex Bot is coming soon and priced separately.
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