How long after a pump.fun CTO does the price peak?
Among the 52 takeovers in the last 60 days that rose at least 10% after the alert, the median peak came 4h 7m after the alert; a quarter peaked within 1h 2m and a quarter took longer than 18h 46m. 21% peaked inside the first hour, 54% within six hours, and 17% were still making new highs after 24 hours. The median peak was 1.87x the alert price. Updated 2026-10-27.
Cite as: Belphor Research (2026). How long after a pump.fun CTO does the price peak? Belphor Data, https://www.belphor.com/data/cto-hold-time. Updated 2026-10-27. Inputs 34bc30519065, formula 1.5, covered 70, missing 0. CC BY 4.0.
When the peak came
| Time to peak | Takeovers | Share | Median peak (x) | Reached +100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 to 60 minutes | 11 | 21% | 1.31x | 9.1% |
| 1 to 3 hours | 10 | 19% | 2.26x | 60% |
| 3 to 6 hours | 7 | 14% | too few readings | too few readings |
| 6 to 12 hours | 9 | 17% | too few readings | too few readings |
| 12 to 24 hours | 6 | 12% | too few readings | too few readings |
| 24 to 36 hours | 9 | 17% | too few readings | too few readings |
Coins still climbing after 24 hours: 9 of 52 (17%); its median peak rests on too few readings. With fewer than 30 in that row, the record does not yet separate them from the rest.
By market cap at the takeover
| Market cap | Takeovers | Share | Median time to peak | Median peak (x) | Reached +100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under $15k | 29 | 56% | 4h 32m | 2.12x | 52% |
| $15k to $50k | 15 | 29% | 3h 14m | 1.54x | 33% |
| $50k to $150k | 6 | 12% | 7h 10m | too few readings | too few readings |
| over $150k | 2 | 3.8% | 14h 11m | too few readings | too few readings |
By instruction
| Instruction | Takeovers | Share | Median time to peak | Median peak (x) | Reached +100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| admin_set_creator (to 11 Sep 2026) | 19 | 37% | 9h 9m | 1.97x | 47% |
| admin_cto (from 11 Oct 2026) | 33 | 64% | 3h 33m | 1.81x | 42% |
admin_set_creator is the instruction pump.fun removed on 12 September 2026; admin_cto is its replacement, counted here from 11 Oct 2026. A row with no takeover yet prints none; a share over fewer than 10 readings prints too few readings.
How this is measured
Every pump.fun community takeover Belphor detected on-chain in the window, at least 37 hours old, with at least 30 minute-level price readings in the 36 hours after the alert. Only takeovers whose highest price was at least 10% above the alert price are included, since a coin that never rose has no peak to time.
Time to peak is the time of the highest price reading in the 36-hour window; a coin still rising at 36 hours is counted in the last bucket. Peaks beyond 36 hours are not tracked here. A share over fewer than 10 readings prints as too few readings: the row's takeovers for Reached +100%, every takeover counted here for Share.
Multiples are the peak price divided by the alert price. Prices come from Belphor's snapshot record (DexScreener pair data). Recomputed nightly from the raw record; nothing is curated by hand.
The minute-level readings come from Belphor's snapshot table for the last 45 days and from its archive for anything older, so a takeover's 36 hours are read in full whatever its age.
pump.fun replaced its takeover instruction on 12 September 2026. This page counts takeovers detected under the earlier instruction, admin_set_creator, the last on 11 September 2026, and, from 11 Oct 2026, takeovers made under the new instruction's new-creator form, admin_cto, which Belphor alerts on and counts as takeovers behind the liquidity, mint safety and rug registry gates. The "By instruction" table shows the two populations apart. Rows recorded under the new instruction before 11 Oct 2026, and its holder-reward form, are not takeovers here.
Frequently asked
How long should you hold a CTO coin?
There is no single answer, which is the point of publishing the distribution: among the 52 takeovers in this record that rose at least 10%, the median peaked 4h 7m after the alert, a quarter peaked within 1h 2m and 17% were still rising a day later. Rules that sell on a fixed clock miss the late runners; rules that wait for a give-back from the peak keep them. Belphor's public record of exit rules is on the Academy.
Do CTO coins pump immediately?
21% of the 52 takeovers that rose at all peaked within the first hour, so the immediate pump is real but it is the minority case: 79% peaked later.
Does this page count pump.fun's new takeover instruction?
pump.fun replaced its takeover instruction on 12 September 2026. This page counts takeovers detected under the earlier instruction, admin_set_creator, the last on 11 September 2026, and, from 11 Oct 2026, takeovers made under the new instruction's new-creator form, admin_cto, which Belphor alerts on and counts as takeovers behind the liquidity, mint safety and rug registry gates. The "By instruction" table shows the two populations apart. Rows recorded under the new instruction before 11 Oct 2026, and its holder-reward form, are not takeovers here.
Where does this data come from?
From Belphor's own on-chain detection of pump.fun creator-change instructions and its minute-level price snapshots, recomputed nightly from the raw record. The JSON and CSV files on this page contain the same numbers.
Belphor records pump.fun takeovers on-chain, scores each signal 0 to 100 and publishes measured outcomes with their sample sizes, windows and missing readings. Reflex Bot is coming soon and priced separately.
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