What happens after tracked smart-money wallets buy a Solana memecoin?
Of the 676 smart-money signals Belphor recorded between 19 Aug 2026 and 10 Oct 2026 that have a price reading at least six hours later, 23% reached +50% at some point, 6.5% reached +200%, 21% were at 20% of their detection price or lower when last checked and 28% were above it. The median signal peaked at 1.11x its detection price. 669 of the 676 rest on a single tracked wallet. 7 had two or more tracked wallets on the same coin, the confluence Belphor's weekly page counts as smart money: too few readings for a rate of their own. Updated 2026-10-16.
Cite as: Belphor Research (2026). What happens after tracked smart-money wallets buy a Solana memecoin? Belphor Data, https://www.belphor.com/data/smart-wallet-outcomes. Updated 2026-10-16. Inputs 134086ec20a7, formula 1.1, covered 676, missing 2. CC BY 4.0.
By number of tracked wallets on the coin
| Tracked wallets | Signals | With a later reading | Down 80% or more | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | Above entry now | Median peak (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| one wallet | 669 | 669 | 21% | 23% | 6.6% | 28% | 1.11x |
| two wallets | 7 | 7 | too few readings | too few readings | too few readings | too few readings | 1.23x |
The count is the tracked wallets that bought the coin within 45 minutes of the first one. The page counts wallets and never names them.
By month of the signal
| Month | Signals | With a later reading | Down 80% or more | Reached +50% | Reached +200% | Above entry now | Median peak (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 78 | 78 | 9.0% | 24% | 1.3% | 32% | 1.12x |
| 2026-09 | 554 | 554 | 22% | 23% | 7.4% | 27% | 1.10x |
| 2026-10 | 44 | 44 | 23% | 27% | 4.5% | 30% | 1.32x |
How this is measured
A smart-money signal is recorded when a wallet Belphor tracks receives a Solana token that is not SOL or a stablecoin, provided the coin has a DexScreener pair inside Belphor's liquidity and market-cap limits; the price and market cap are recorded at that moment. A second tracked wallet buying the same coin within 45 minutes joins the same signal, which is how a row comes to count two wallets or more.
The window is the 60 days ending when this page was recomputed, read from both the live table and the archive of older signals, so the first and last signal it holds are the dates printed above. Rates are computed over the signals with a price reading at least 6 hours after detection, which is every signal the tables count.
"Down 80% or more" means the most recent price reading, at least 6 hours after detection, was 20% of the detection price or lower (a pool that drained below $1k of liquidity counts as zero). "Reached +X%" uses the highest price observed after detection and "Above entry now" the most recent reading; prices are re-read for 24 hours after a signal. A share over fewer than 10 readings prints as too few readings.
A signal is left out when its price cannot be verified: a market cap above $250M at detection or a peak of 100x or more with no matching price snapshot in Belphor's record. The count is printed under each table.
These are outcomes of signals, not of trades and not of the wallets themselves: a tracked wallet can sell minutes after it buys, and nothing here says what a follower would have been filled at. No wallet address or label appears on this page or in its files.
Frequently asked
Do coins go up after smart-money wallets buy them?
In Belphor's record, 23% of the 676 smart-money signals recorded between 19 Aug 2026 and 10 Oct 2026 with a later reading traded at least 50% above their detection price at some point, and 28% were above it at the last reading, while 21% were at 20% of it or lower. The median peak was 1.11x. A signal is the moment a tracked wallet bought, not a result anyone following it would have had.
Does it matter how many smart wallets buy the same coin?
Signals with two wallets have too few readings (n 7) to set against the 669 with one wallet.
Where does this data come from?
From Belphor's own on-chain watch of the wallets it tracks and DexScreener prices, recomputed daily from the raw record. The JSON and CSV files on this page contain the same numbers, and neither names a wallet.
Belphor records pump.fun takeovers on-chain, scores each signal 0 to 100 and publishes measured outcomes with their sample sizes, windows and missing readings. Reflex Bot is coming soon and priced separately.
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